برای موفقیت در زمینه گردشگری باید گردشگران و رفتارهایشان را مورد مطالعه قرار دهیم. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثر متغیرهای رضایت و تصویر مقصد بر نیتهای بازدید در کوتاه مدت، میان مدت و بلند مدت، جهت بررسی فرآیند بازگشت گردشگران و شناسایی رفتار آنها در شهر تهران میباشد. این متغیرها به عنوان عوامل موثر بر نیتهای بازگشت یا عدم بازگشت گردشگران در نظر گرفته شده است. پژوهش حاضر کاربردی و از نوع هدف توصیفی میباشد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش متشکل از گردشگران شهر تهران در بازه زمانی تابستان سال 91 است. بدین منظور براساس جدول مورگان نمونهای برابر با 390 گردشگر انتخاب شد. نمونه گیری به صورت نمونه گیری در دسترس انجام شد. جهت جمعآوری دادهها از پرسشنامه استفاده شد که پایایی و روایی آن بهوسیله آلفای کرونباخ و تحلیل عاملی تاییدی مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. مدل مفهومی پژوهش با استفاده از بخش ساختاری مدل معادلات ساختاری موسوم به تحلیل مسیر مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. یافتهها حاکی از آن است که تفاوت قابل ملاحظهای بین نیتهای بازدید در فواصل زمانی مختلف با توجه به رضایت و تصویر مقصد افراد وجود دارد. متغیر رضایت در کوتاه مدت بر نیت بازگشت تاثیر دارد اما در میان مدت کم رنگ تر میگردد. تصویر مقصد افراد در کوتاهمدت تمایلی به بازدید از مقصد در آنان ایجاد میکند، ولی در بازه زمانی بلندمدت تاثیر این عامل بر نیت بازدید کاهش مییابد.
The Effect of Destination Image and Satisfaction on Tourists' Intentions to Visit a Place
To succeed in tourism industry, tourists and their behaviors should be studied. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of tourists' satisfaction and destination image on their visit intentions in the short, medium and long term, to evaluate the tourists return process and identification their behavior in Tehran city. These variables are considered as factors influencing on their intentions to either return or not return. The study is of applied research, and in terms of the purpose, is a descriptive research. The statistical population of the research is all of the tourists visiting Tehran city in the summer of 2013. For this purpose, a sample of 390 people was selected using convenience sampling. Questionnaires were used to collect data for which the reliability and validity was assessed using Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory factor analysis. The conceptual framework of the research was examined using the structural part of the structural equation model, called path analysis. Results indicate that there are significant differences between satisfaction and intentions to visit at different intervals depending on the people's destination image. Satisfaction has impact on intentions to return in the short term but in the medium term, the impact is less. People destination image in short – term creates a willingness to visit the destination, yet in long – term, such impact becomes less.
Introduction The very fast and accelerating growth of tourism industry make most of experts to name the twenty century as century of tourism. Nowadays tourism is one of the most important phenomenon in our world (Dristiks, 2004: 20-28) as it can be one of resources of earning money for countries (Hasan Nejad & et al, 2014: 88-109). So we can see that most of countries try to develop tourism facilities as they have understood the excellent position of tourism industry in different pattern of economic development in recent years (Ehiaiy, 2010: 32). There have been lots of studies to understand factors which effect on visited tourism destination in recent years. Studies express some predictive factors such as satisfaction, service quality (Baker & Crompton, 2000: 758-804; and Kozak & Rimmington, 2000: 206-269 ; Petrick, Morais & Norman, 2001: 41-48; Yuksel, 2001: 153-168), perceived value (Patrick et al., 2001: 41-48), past experience (Chen & Gursoy, 2001: 79- 85, Kozak, 2001: 784-807; Patrick et al., 2001: 41-48), safety (Chen & Gursoy, 2001: 79-85), destination image (Milman & Pizam, 1995: 21-27; Ross, 1993 : 54-57). With respect to economic importance and advantage of revisiting the tourism destination, in this study, we look for investigating the effects of satisfaction and destination image on intent of short visit, medium visit, and long visit. These variables have been considered as effective factors on visitors return or visitors leave. First, we explore the main variables of study and then explain the assumptions and conceptual model according to study's literature and then after explaining the research method, we investigate the assumptions. Finally, we discuss the results in the last part.
Method This study is applicable according to its purpose, because the purpose of this study is to develop practical applications of visit or revisit tourist destinations and use them to identify behavior of tourists, to warm up internal tourism. And this study is descriptive-survey with respect to its method since it describes the variables and the relationship between them to recognize as is situation and making optimal decisions. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of satisfaction and destination image on the intent to return in the short, medium and long periods of time. Statistical society of this research include all tourist of Tehran city in the summer of year 2012. According to the Iran statistics center there has been 5,571,837 travel to Tehran in the summer of 2012. According to the topic of the study statistical society included only tourist who has traveled to Tehran only for recreation and fun. According to the statistical information of Iran statistics center about 20 percent of all internal tourist travel to Tehran for recreation and fun (Iran statistics center 2012). So according to this information the population size is about 1,114,367 travel. So according to Morgan's table the sample population is about 384 traveler. Statistical sample has been chosen by using accessible sampling method. Data collected by using questionnaire and asking travelers ideas. Questionnaire was published in Mehrabad's airport, train and terminals. First we ask 1100 traveler some control questions (such as travel cause, length of stay, travel type and nature) and then we choose 756 traveler to answer the questionnaire. 417 questionnaires were returned to researchers and 390 questionnaires were completely and accurately answered and usable. In this study the validity of questionnaire were achieved by using tow method: formal and construct validity (factor). Formal and conceptual validity of questionnaire were achieved by using expert's ideas and suggestions (khaki, 1999: 288-291). And construct validity were measured by using confirmatory factor analysis model. In confirmatory factor analysis, researcher try to answer if the questions of the study are able to measure the variables. To evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire Cronbach's alpha test was used (Sarmad, 2006:166). Results shows high reliability of the questionnaire so that the total reliability is 0.903. Stability of destination image and satisfaction is 0.871, 0.825 respectively. This coefficient for intent of visit in short, medium, long period of time are 0.769, 0.814 and 0.847 respectively. Usually construct equation models are a combination of measurement and construction models which uses Lisrel software to measure fitting, composite stability and average variance extracted. For average variance extracted (a very important convergence index) values more than 0.5 and for composite reliability values more than 0.7 were used (Azar et.al., 2012: 162-161). All values of our study are shown in table 2. Value of AVE and load factor of items (table 5) that are more than 0.5 and also composite reliability that are more than 0.7 show that all variables of this study have relatively good fitness and validity of convergence of indexes toward main variable is relatively high. Results First demographic attributes have been reviewed in the form of descriptive statistics and then assumptions are investigated. The average age of respondents was 28/8. Table 3 shows demographic attributes of this study. Structural equation modeling (structural model) Structural model investigate the relationship between exogenous latent and endogenous latent variables. Here destination image (IM) is exogenous latent variable and satisfaction (SAT) is endogenous latent variable. Short revisit variable (SR), medium revisit variable (MR), long revisit variable (LR), are moderating variables in the model. With respect to significant coefficients we can say that the assumption of effect of satisfaction on the intent of long revisit and also the effect of destination image on the intent of medium revisit were not confirmed. All other assumptions were confirmed. To investigate fitness of conceptual model, eight indexes with their acceptable value, suggested by pervious research, were used (Hair and et.al., 1998).
Conclusion In this research tourist intent to long, medium or short revisit was used. This criteria help us to evaluate revisit intent period and also help us to evaluate future behavior for revisiting (Asaker et.al., 2011, 890-901). About the assumptions of the study we can say that satisfaction (that investigate the effect of satisfaction on the revisit intent in long, medium, short period of time) have direct and positive effect on the revisit intent in medium and short period of time but there is no meaningful relationship between this variable and revisit intent in long period of time. The value for the effect of satisfaction on the short revisit intent is 0.16 and for medium revisit intent is 0.31 that is positive and meaningful. With respect to the result of study we can say that the average of tourist's prefer and interest to return in short period of time is more than returning in medium period of time but the effect of satisfaction for medium period of time is higher than short period of time as most of tourists prefer diversity in their visits so they may not prefer to return in short period of time. Although satisfaction in short period of time has lower effect compare to medium period of time, after a while tourists remember their memory from their visits in medium period of time and show more intention to revisit again. Satisfaction doesn't have any meaningful and positive effect on the revisit intent in long period of time as after a long time tourists may forget their memories and new destination will replace in their mind to visit. So we suggest to the tourism managers to focus on the advertisement and make continues relationship with tourists to motivate them to choose their destination again and again. The results of our study confirmed the results of Jang and Feng, 2007; Yuksel, 2001; Petrick et.al., 2001; Kozak, 2001; Baker and Crompton, 2000. They understood that satisfaction is direct predictive for revisit intent in short period of time but not for medium and long period of time but our results didn't confirm Bigen et.al (2009). They found out that satisfaction doesn't have meaningful effect on the revisit intent in short period of time and it is more related to revisit in long period of time. The other variable explored in this study was destination image. The results show that destination image have direct and positive effect on the intent to revisit in short and medium period of time. Revisit intent in short period of time shows higher effect (0.33 positive and meaningful) and revisit intent in long period of time shows lowest effect (0.22 positive and meaningful). It shows that the effect of destination image may decrease by time passing. These results confirmed results of Assaker et al (2011) and Bigne et al (2009). Totally these results express that marketers should motivate and attract tourists continuously. Managers of tourist places should develop and advertise new feature that grantee attraction and motivation of tourists for a long time. Also these result support previous studies (Mittal and Lasar, 1998: 177-194). These results say that although satisfaction cause customer returning and loyalty, satisfaction may not be enough to explain revisit intent. Some of tourists seeking diversity and new places and prefer to visit new places without paying any attention to their positive experience from other places. In such circumstances, satisfaction could not be predictive for revisit intent. For future research it is better to use a more complete conceptual model and also bigger statistical population. Also it is better to do this study in other samples and cities to repeat results and make grantee more comprehensive results. In this study tow variables named satisfaction and destination image were used as predictive and effective variables for revisit intent. In future research, experts can use more predictive variables to evaluate their effects on revisit intent.