2کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان
طی چند دهه اخیر صنعت گردشگری به یکی از مهمترین منابع درآمدی کشورها تبدیل شده است. با توجه به تفاوت قابل ملاحظه کشورهای توسعه یافته با کشورهای در حال توسعه در جذب عایدات گردشگری بین المللی، اقدام به بررسی تأثیر شاخص نهاد حکمرانی کشور میزبان بر درآمد گردشگری کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه طی دوره 2012-2000 نموده ایم. یافته های تحقیق بیانگر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار شاخص نهاد حکمرانی بر درآمد گردشگری کشورهای در حال توسعه مورد مطالعه دارد. این مطلب بیان کننده لزوم حرکت جدی کشورهای در حال توسعه نسبت به بهبود اجزای شاخص حکمرانی است. علاوه بر این یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد توسعه زیرساخت فناوری ارتباطات و اطلاعات و سطح آموزش عمومی اثر مثبتی بر درآمد گردشگری بین المللی دارد. براساس نتایج ضریب تخمینی شاخص مخارج بهداشت بی معناست. همچنین نتایج نشان می دهد علاوه بر افزایش درآمد سرانه واقعی و جمعیت کشورها و نرخ ارز، زیرساختهای حمل ونقل از اهمیت بسزایی در جذب گردشگر برخوردارند.
The Effects Institutions on Income Tourism in the Selected Developing Countries
Extended Abstract Over the last few decades, tourism has become one of the most important sources of income of the host country. Given the significant differences between developed countries and developing countries in attracting international tourism revenues, to investigate the effect governance index on the income tourism of the host country using data from 2000-2012 developing countries have been selected. The findings suggest that the effects of governance index in developing countries a significant and positive impact. This suggests the need for serious action by developing countries to improve governance index. In addition, the findings indicate that the development of ICT infrastructure and the level of public education have a positive effect on the income tourism of the host country. There is not a significant relationship between increasing the health expenditure by increasing income tourism in developing countries. The results show that the addition of real per capita income and population and exchange rates, transport infrastructure are very important in attracting tourists. So that the air transports infrastructure development and income tourism in developing countries a positive and significant relationship exists. Introduction Despite the progress some developing countries, there is still deep gap in the benefit from the proceeds of international tourists between developed countries with developing countries considering having a capacity of exceptional natural, cultural, historical and archaeological. Reviews the determinants of earn more from tourism channels is essential because different incentive tourism and cannot be easily identified types of variables affecting it. The dominant view in most of the researches conducted background factors affecting the income from tourism activities has been based solely on economic factors and less on social and institutional factors were taken into consideration. Issue institutions in two decades recent simultaneous by expanding critical surge policy package of neoclassical in the area international economics by economists known the new institutionalists, has been proposed. Institutionalists believe that institutional factors, especially the institutional governance index effective on economic development and attracting tourist’s countries.
Materials and Methods In this section inspired by the theoretical and empirical studies Panyik (2015), Nunkoo and et al (2013), Massidda and Etzo (2012), Cho (2010), Seetanah and et al (2010), Aslan et al. (2009) and Khadaroo and Seetanah (2007), concerning the econometric models used in this study compiled the index of institutional governance of the host country and other determinants to explore about the factors affecting tourism income over the period 2000- 2012, will be discussed. The variables used in the econometric model were as follows:
So that represents in my country its tourism income. Following the Panyik (2015), Massidda and Etzo (2012), Cho (2010), Aslan et al. (2009), Khadaroo and Seetanah (2007), Naude and Saayman (2005) and in order to maintain expansion of the tourism industry index the income international tourists (RECP) is considered as the dependent variable. Tourism affected by natural shocks, war, changes in policies, taste, advertising, expectations, political instability, terrorism and other special events are placed. Due to the lack of availability of data, usually the above as the disturbing element or the error ( ) is entered in the model. Due to the factors mentioned above, it can be expressed:
Based on the relationship 2 and in accordance with theoretical and experimental studies are expected to increase the per capita income in the countries of origin, the real exchange rate, population growth, improved transport infrastructure, improving ICT infrastructure, improve the education level of the population, especially the tourism field staff improving indicators hygienic and improving institutional governance in the country of destination have a positive impact on tourism revenues in the host country. Considering that the econometric equation logarithmically, so it is considered if the equation number one on explicit and logarithmic have expressed. We have the following equation:
According to equation (3), shows the specific characteristics of each country in the examined samples. In simple terms, the coefficients of dummy variables sections for countries that if they ignore the error terms and wastes ( ) will show itself. In order to test the hypothesis and investigate the effect of governance indicators host country on international tourism income of 36 developing countries selected, are used eviews software and econometric techniques data panel the sections and time periods combined together. It is worth mentioning for providing the required data in this study used documentary information Statistical Center of Iran, the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Tourism Organization and statistical databases including the information documented global development indices (WDI) and UNWTO and www.govindicatians.org.
Discussion and Results According to the results estimations the estimated coefficients variable the governance in developing countries is positive and significant. So could be said with regard to the significant impact of institutional of governance variable on tourism revenue in developing countries, a serious move to improve of governance indexes in decreasing gaps development existing especially in the field of tourism is of valuable help. In other words improvement each of the indexes of freedom and transparency, political stability, effectiveness of law, the rule of Law, fighting corruption and the independence of the judiciary apparatus in line with the the better performance of institutions and apparatus related to attract tourists international directly and indirectly affect.The estimated coefficients Voice and accountability indicator is positive and significant. In relation to this indicator must be acknowledged, lawful freedom and the free dissemination of information that are examples of voice and accountability, are cause strengthening of public awareness and transparency economic and social. On the other hand, institutions of civil society like trade associations, the unions, parties and free and healthful elections to people of a society empowers to choose public, and redundant control. It is natural in such circumstances has enjoyed individuals of appropriate social rights and an incentive to travel to these countries. The results also indicate positive and significant relationship variable control of corruption on tourism revenue. In other words whatever public and governmental abuse of power and the service is not personal and private interests as the motivation of presence international tourists will be provided.Also indicators of effectiveness and efficiency of government positive impact on the tourism revenue is meaningless. As was noted earlier order the effectiveness of government, its ability to formulation and implementation of sound policies and necessary it to have an efficient administrative apparatus. An efficient administrative apparatus have the power and skill to manage the affairs the country and be able to prevent the occurrence of dramatic changes in politics, political pressures have not been affected and have be transparent mechanisms to attract international tourists. Conclusions According opinion of many domestic and foreign scholars is one of the components of good governance to attract foreign tourists. The findings of this study also positive effect improve the quality of governance in attracting foreign tourists approved. Total index governance simple average of six governance indicators provided by the World Bank, a significant and positive impact on the income from foreign tourists.
Keywords: Tourism, Good Governance, Panel Data References
Aslan, A., Kula, F. and Kaplan, M. (2009). International tourism demand for Turkey: A dynamic panel data approach, A Research Journal of International Studies, Issue 9; 64-75. Cho, V. (2010). A study of the non-economic determinants in tourism demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 307-320. Eilat, Y. and Einva, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: A three-dimensional panel data analysis, Applied Economics, 36(12); 1315–1327. Habibi, F. and Abbasi Nejad, H. (2005). Said the estimate of tourism demand using time-series cross-sectional data, Journal of Economic Research, 40(70): 115-91. (In persian) Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2009). Governance matters VIII: Aggregate and individual governance indicators 1996-2008, Policy Research Working Paper, 4978. Khadaroo, J. and Seetanah, B. (2007). Transport infrastructure and tourism development, Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4); 1021–1032. Lim, C. (1997). An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models, Tourism Economics, 136(3); 69-81. Lim, C. and McAleer, M. (2002). Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia, Tourism Management, 23(4); 389-396. Levett, C. (2005). A slice of the action, Sydney Morning Herald, 29 October, 27. Massidda, C. and Etzo, I. (2012). The determinants of Italian domestic tourism: A panel data analysis, Tourism Management 33(3); 603-610. Midary, A. and Kheirkhahan, J. (2004). Good governance Development Foundation, First edition, Tehran, publisher Majlis Research Center. (In persian) Naude, W. and Saayman, A. (2005). Determinants of tourist Arrivals in Africa: A panel data regression analysis, Tourism Economics, 11(3); 365–391. Nunkoo, R. and Smith, S.L.J.(2013). Political economy of tourism: Trust in government actors, political support, and their determinants, Tourism Management, 36(1); 120-132. Panyik, E. (2015). Rural tourism governance: determinants of policy-makers’ support for tourism Development, Tourism Planning & Development, 12(1); 48-72. Seetanah, B., Durbarry, R. and Ragodoo, J.F.N. (2010). Using the panel cointegration approach to analyse the determinants of tourism demand in South Africa, Tourism Economics, 16(3); 715-729. Shahabadi, A., Sayah, A. and Pourjavan, A. (2011). Factors affecting tourism in countries D8, First National Conference on Sustainable Tourism in Sistan and Baluchestan, June 3-5. (In persian) Shahabadi, A. and Sayah, A. (2013). Economic impact of tourism infrastructure: Developing countries and developed comparative approach to panel data, Tourism Planning and Development Journal, 2(7); 25-43. (In persian) Song, H. and Li, G. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: How should demand be measured?, Tourism Economics, 16(1); 63–81. Witt, S.F. and Witt, C.A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research, International Journal of Forecasting, 11(3); 447-475. The World Development Indicators (WDI). latest edition, retrieved March 6, 2014, http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=12&id=4 &CNO=2. World Tourism Organization, Yearbook of Tourism Statistic, 2014 edition. http://www2.unwto.org/. Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). latest edition, retrieved December, 2015, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx #home.