هدف از مقاله پیش رو بررسی رابطه بین ورود گردشگر خارجی و میزان وقوع جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری در ایران با استفاده از داده های سالیانه در فاصله سال های 1370 تا 1391 می باشد. برای رسیدن به اهداف پژوهش، تعداد ورود گردشگران خارجی در هر کیلومتر مربع برای نمایش توان جذب گردشگر و نیز تعداد کل پروندههای جرایم سالیانه در حوزه های جرایم رانندگی، سرقت و تجاوز به عنف در کشور به ازای هر 100 هزار نفر جمعیت جهت اندازه گیری نرخ جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری به کار گرفته شد و نتایج برآورد مدل پیشنهادی با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری نشان داد که طی دوره مشاهده، جذب گردشگران خارجی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر میزان وقوع جرایم مرتبط با گردشگری در ایران داشته است.
The Relationship between Foreign Tourists and Crime in Iran
Extended Abstract Introduction The tourism industry has become one of the most attractive investment targets and a significant source of revenue and foreign exchange in recent decades. Tourism is an activity in which a person or persons who travel to a location other than their normal place of residence and stay there for at least one night and one year in maximum and the purpose of their travel is to recreation and those who included in this definition are also called tourists. On the other hand crime is a phenomenon that has always been discussed by media and is easily understood by the public due to its importance and its impact on people's lives. In addition to the devastating social and cultural consequences, crimes also have a negative effect on economic activities. Crime and safety issues in tourist destinations, have a direct impact on the behavior and experiences of tourists and the tourism industry in each country. The lack of studies investigating the role of tourism in crime in Iran made us to study this relationship. So in this paper we are going to study the effect of foreign tourists arrival on crime related to tourism in Iran during 1991–2012.
Materials and Methods To achieve the research objectives, we used the number of foreign tourists arrivals per square kilometer and the total number of annually judicial cases about driving offenses, theft and rape per hundred thousand individuals to measure the research variables. Then we applied Johansen Co-integration Test and Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the proposed model. Discussion and Results The results of Phillips–Perron Unit Root Test indicated that both variables are stable in 1st difference in 5% level. Stationary of the variables at the same level could indicate the existence of a long-run relationship between them. Therefore in the next step we applied Johansen Co-integration Test using Eviews6 to examine the long-run relationship between the research variables. The results of Johansen Co-integration Test for variables showed that there is at least one long-run co-integration vector among the variables with the certainty of more than 99% which provided the basis of using estimation methods. At the next step Vector Error Correction Model used to estimate the proposed model. According to the results of Vector Error Correction Estimates for variables, coefficient of which called error correction coefficient, appeared in the model with the negative sign and it`s significance approved in 3% level. Negative sign of error correction coefficient indicates the tendency for long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Also the significance of and which indicate the impact of foreign tourists arrivals on crimes related to tourism approved in 6% and 4%level repectively.
Conclusions The results on this study show that foreign tourist arrivals has a positively significant impact on crimes in Iran during the observation period so that 1% increase in number of foreign tourists arrivals has led to approximately 0.16% increase in crimes related to tourism in the next period and 0.03% increase in crimes in the next two period. These results suggest that foreign tourist arrivals has a significant contribution in promoting of crimes related to tourism in Iran`which can ban be caused by restructuring of the indigenous population in the tourism cites, poor planning and performances bye tourism services, the crime prone nature of tourism places and weakness of police forces in periods of influx of foreign tourists to the country. Given the results of this study and other similar studies, greater oversight of the agencies providing tourism services and strengthen regulatory forces and law enforcement provide the general suggestions of the study.
Keywords: Tourism, crime, Iran, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). References:
Allen, J. (1999). Crime against international tourists, Contemporary Issues in Crime and Justice, No.43:1-8. Alleyne, D., & Boxill, I. (2003). The impact of crime on tourist arrivals in Jamaica, International Journal of Tourism Research, 5(5):381-391. Altindag, D. (2014). Crime and international tourism, Journal of Labor Research, 35(1):1-14. Amir, A.F., Ismail, M.N.I. and See, T.P. (2015). Sustainable tourist environment: Perception of international women travelers on safety and security in Kuala Lumpur, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, No.168:123-133. Arbabian, Sh., Zamani, Z. and Rahimi, M. (2014). The effect of tourism industry on the development of entrepreneurship, Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 3(10): 126-146. (In Persian) Aref, F. (2011). The effects of tourism on quality of life: A case study of Shiraz, Iran, Life Science Journal, 8(2):26-30. Barker, M., Page, S.J. and Meyer, D. (2002). Modeling tourism crime the 2000 America’s Cup, Annals of Tourism Research, 29(3):762-782. Baker, D. and Stockton, S. (2014). Tourism and crime in America: A preliminary assessment of the relationship between the number of tourists and crime, two major American tourist cities, International Journal of Safety and Security in Tourism, No. 5: 1-25. Bentley, T. and S. Page. (2001). Scoping the extent of tourist accidents, Annals of Tourism Research, No. 28: 705–726. Biagi, B. and Detotto, C. (2010). Crime as tourism externality, CRENOS Working Paper, 2010(15):1-30. Biagi, B., Barndano, M. and Detotto, C. (2012). The effect of tourism on crime in Italy: A dynamic panel approach, Economics Discussion Papers, 2012(4):1-26. Birtles, T. (1978). Criminal victimization - a new research theme in social geography, 15th Annual Conference of the Institute of Australian Geographers, Townsville. Bourne, P. (2010). Crime, tourism and trust in a developing country, Current Research Journal of Social Sciences, 2(2): 69-83. Brantingham, P.L. and Brantingham, P.J. (1995). Criminality of place: Crime generators and crime attractors, European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, No.3: 5–26. Brown, C.B. (2015). Tourism, crime and risk perception: An examination of broadcast media's framing of negative Aruban sentiment in the Natalee Holloway case and its impact on tourism demand, Tourism Management Perspectives, No. 16: 266-277. Brunt, P., Mawby, R. and Hambly, Z. (2000). Tourist victimisation and the fear of crime on holiday, Tourism Management, 21(4): 417–424. Campaniello, N. (2013). Mega events in sports and crime evidence from the 1990 football world cup, Journal of Sports Economics, 14(2):148-170. Crotts, J. (1996). Theoretical perspectives on tourist criminal victimization, The Journal of Tourism Studies, 7(1): 2-9. Crouch, G.I. (1994). The study of international tourism demand, Journal of Travel Research, No. 32: 41-55. Detotto, C. and Otranto, E. (2010). Does crime affect economic growth?, KYKLOS, 63(3): 330-345. Enders, W., T. Sandler and Parise, G.F. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism, Kyklos, No. 45: 531-54. Engle, R. and Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica, 55(2): 251-276. Fujii, E.T. and Mak, J. (1980). Tourism and crime: Implications for regional development policy, Regional Studies, No. 14: 27-36. Glenson, R. and Peak, K. (2004). Crimes Against Tourists, Retrieved November 1, 2003, from: http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/mime/open.pdf?Item=1306 Gomez, S. (1972). Motor vehicle thefts in Spain in 1969 (Part I), International Criminal Police Review, No. 27: 94–101. Gonzalo, J. (1994). Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships, Journal of Econometrics, 60(1-2): 203-233. Hami, M. (2014). Inflation and openness: Empirical evidences from Iran (1965-2010), Studies in Business and Economics, 9(2): 27-32. Harper, D.W. (2001). Comparing tourists' crime victimization, Annals of Tourism Research, 28(4):1053–1056. Heydari, R. (2010). Basics of Tourism Planning, Samt Pub. (In Persian) Jadrešić, V. (2010). Janus’ Face of Tourism, Zagreb: Plejada. Jafari Samimi, A. and Khobreh, Sh. (2014). The effect of tourism industry on the development of entrepreneurship, Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 2(7): 11-24. (In Persian) Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3): 231-254. Kozak, M., Drotts, J. and Law, R. (2007). The Impact of the perception of risk on international travellers, Journal of Tourism, No. 9: 233-242. Kraus, R. (1971). Recreation and Leisure in Modern Society, Pacific Palisades: Goodyear Publishing. Lee, C. and Chang, C. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at Panels, Tourism Management, No. 29: 180-192. Messner, S. and Rosenfield, R. (2001). Crime and American Dream, Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. Moyo, B. and Ziramba, E. (2013). The impact of crime on inbound tourism to South Africa: An application of the bounds test, African Security Review, 22(1): 4-18. Murphy, P.E. (2013). Tourism: A Community Approach (RLE Tourism), Routledge. Neumayer, E. (2004). The impact of political violence on tourism dynamic cross-national estimation, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2): 259-281. Nichols, J. (2008). The Effect of tourist attractions on crime trends in the growing community of Shakopee, Minnesota, Papers in Resource Analysis, No. 10: 1-12. Nkosi, GS. (2010). The impact of crime on tourism in the city of uMhlathuze, KwaZulu-Natal, South Asian Journal of Tourism and Heritage Studies, 3(2): 76-81. Pearce, P. (1982). The Social Psychology of Tourist Behaviour, Pergamon Press; Oxford. Pizam, A. (1999). A comprehensive approach to classifying acts of crime and violence at tourism destinations, Journal of Travel Research, No. 38: 5-12. Pizam, A. and Mansfield, Y. (1996). Tourism, Crime and International Security Issues, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons. Prideaux, B. (1996). Mass tourism and crime: Is there a connection? A study of crime in major Queensland tourism destinations, Tourism Research and Education Conference, Queensland: Bureau of Tourism Research, PP: 251-260. Ryan, C. (1993). Crime, violence, terrorism and tourism, Tourism Management, No. 14: 173-183. Salehi, S., MirMohammadtabar, S.A. and Sohrabi, M. (2015). Explain the sociological impact of tourism on the crime rate in Mazandaran province, Danesh-e-Entezami, 16(4): 81-102. (In Persian) Schiebler, S.A., Crotts, J.C. and Hollinger, R.C. (1996). Florida tourists’ vulnerability to crime, In Tourism, Crime and International Security Issues, PP.: 37-50. Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6(2): 461-464. Stangeland, P. (1998). Other Ttrgets of other locations? An analysis of opportunity structures, British Journal of Criminology, 38(1): 61–77. Stock, J. and Watson, M. (1988). Variable trends in economic time series, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(3): 147-174. Terrero, L.S. (2014). Social impacts of tourism in Brazil, Global Sustainable Tourism Review, 1st draft report, 1-33. Ojong, F. and Bassey, A.E. (2012). Impact of crime on sustainable tourism in Cross River State, Nigeria, Research on Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(11): 35-44. Van Tran, X. and Bridges, F. (2009). Tourism and crime in European nations. E-Review of Tourism Research, 7(3): 52-67. Walmsley, D.J., Boskovic, R.M. and Pigram, J.J.J. (1981). Tourism and Crime, Department of Geography, University of New England. Witt, S.F. (1991). Tourism in Cyprus, balancing the benefits and costs, Travel Management, No. 12: 37-46. World Tourism Organization. (2013). UNWTO Annual Report 2013, UNWTO, Madrid. All. Yahyazadehfar, M., Tehranchian, A.M. and Hami, M. (2014). Social capital and financial development in Iran, Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 4(16): 73-88. (In Persian)
کلیدواژه ها [English]
Tourism, crime, Iran, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)