چکیده در مطالعات تجربی در زمینهی بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای گردشگری، شاهد گونهای نقص در مدلسازی تابع تقاضای گردشگری هستیم؛ چراکه توجه اصلی در مطالعات، بر روی عوامل متداول تقاضای گردشگری (همچون درآمد و سطح قیمت کشورها) معطوف شده است و کمتر به عوامل سمت عرضهی خدمات گردشگری (همچون زیرساختهای شبکهی حمل و نقل کشور، زیرساختهای فناوری ارتباطات و اطلاعات، سطح بهداشت و آموزش کشورها) توجه شده است. با توجه به تفاوت معنیدار کشورهای توسعهیافته و کشورهای درحالتوسعه در جذب گردشگر بینالمللی، اقدام به مقایسهی تأثیر عوامل درآمد سرانه، جمعیت، نرخ ارز و همچنین توسعهی زیرساختهای اقتصادی (زیرساختهای حمل ونقل، شاخص فناوری ارتباطات و اطلاعات، شاخصهای توسعهیافتگی سطح بهداشت و خدمات درمانی و سطح آموزش و فرهنگ جامعه) بر تقاضای گردشگری با استفاده از دادههای مقطعی 2000 -2010 کشورهای منتخب توسعهیافته و درحال توسعه با رویکرد پانل دیتا داشتهایم. نتایج نشان میدهد علاوهبر درآمد سرانهی واقعی و جمعیت کشورها، شاخص فناوری ارتباطات و اطلاعات و نرخ ارز از اهمیت بهسزایی در جذب گردشگر برخوردارند. براساس نتایج، تخمین هزینههای آموزشی تأثیر مثبت و معنیدار بر تقاضای گردشگری کشورهای توسعهیافته دارد؛ درحالی که ضریب تخمینی متغیر هزینههای آموزشی کشورهای درحال توسعه بیمعنی است. همچنین نتایج تخمین بیانگر تأثیر مثبت و معنیدار توسعهی بهداشت و سطح سلامت جامعه بر تقاضای گردشگری کشورهای توسعهیافته و تأثیر مثبت و بیمعنای توسعهی بهداشت و سطح سلامت جامعه بر تقاضای گردشگری کشورهای درحالتوسعه است.
An Investigation on the Effects of Economic Infrastructure on Tourism:Panel Data Approach
Introduction The tourism industry has 5% of world GDP and constitutes 6% of the total world exports and one person in every 12 people is working in this industry. According to the role of the tourism industry, the need for research on factors influencing the tourism demand and the use of different tools is essential in order to develop and benefit from the numerous economic and social advantages. Empirical studies in the field of investigation of the factors influencing tourism demand, we are observing the defects in modeling of tourism demand function. Since the main focus of studies has been paid on the popular factors of tourism demand (such as income and price levels of countries), and less have been noted to levels of tourism services supply (such as the infrastructures of transport network, the health level and cultural condition of the country). Currently the tourism industry constitutes 5% of world GDP and 6% of the total world exports and one person in every 12 people is employed in this industry. Tourism revenues have grown up from 570 billion dollars in 2000 to more than 1000 billion dollars in 2010. In recent years, following the wave of recession and rising unemployment, many policymaker leaders look to the country's tourism industry as an industry that can stimulate the economy. Therefore understanding the nature of the tourism demand is important for progressing a tourism development plan. In this field, little attention has been given to investigating the complexity of tourism. Tourism includes a wide range of goods and services which each of them have unique characteristics. Effective factors on tourism demand are classified into three categories
Demand-side factors are collection of economic, social and natural variables in the host country that affect the preferences and motivations of tourists to enter the destination area. This include variables such as individual motivations of tourists, culture and traditions of the people, geographical conditions, disposable income, income distribution, graduation rates and fiscal policy and monitoring of tourism expenditures. 2. Supply side factors: Supply side factors are collections of economic, social and natural variables in the host country that affect the preferences and motivations of tourists to enter destination areas. Supply-side factors are such as real income per capita, direct foreign investment, ICT infrastructure, the transport infrastructure, competitiveness and quality of tourism products and economic regulation in the host country. 3. Relationship factors: Relationship factors are a group of communication variables that are related together in two countries such as destination advertisement in the source region, exchange rate, time and travel costs and relative prices.
Materials and Methods This paper attempts to estimate the tourism demand equation to investigate the factors affecting tourism demand. According to significant difference between developed and developing countries in attracting international tourists, we have attempted to comparison the effects of per capita income, population, exchange rates and also development of economic infrastructures (transport infrastructure, ICT indicators, indicators of development, and health level medical services and level of education and culture of the society) on tourism demand by using cross-sectional data from 2000 - 2010 in selected developed and developing countries with panel data approach. Because this study is cross-country, panel data techniques is the most appropriate method.
Discussion and Results Per capita income has positive and statistically significant effect on the amount of tourists in both groups of countries.Also, for both groups of countries, tourism is a luxury item. Model results indicate that the countries whit more populated will have more demand for tourism.The results showed a significant and negative relationship between the real effective exchange rate and tourism demand. To more accurately, the real effective exchange rate shows the competitiveness of power generation and delivery of local services against foreign products and services. Thus whatever country's real effective exchange rate behigh, its demand for tourism services will be less.The results also showed a significant positive correlation between an increase in health development and community health with increasing tourism demand in developed countries? For developing countries, tourism demand has not any relationships with expenditures conducted in the field of healthcare. Communication services including Internet services and the availability of national data in cyberspace is another factor in attracting tourists in both groups of the countries. This effect was similar in both groups but significantly more reliable in developing countries.Finally, the estimation results indicate that thedevelopment of air transport infrastructure in developing countries is meaningless but this effect is significant and positive in developing countries. This issue explains importance of the development of air transport in developing countries than in developed countries.
Conclusion The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting international tourism demand in selected developing and developed countries. The results show that in addition to real per capita income and population, ICT indicator and exchange rate have an important role in attracting tourists. Noticeable in results of this paper is effect of educational expenditure on tourism demand.This effect on developed countries is significant and positive and in developing countries is non-significant. There is also a significant positive relationship between increasing the health development and society health level by increasing tourism demand in developed countries, while in developing countries this indicator is non-significant. One of the main results is sign of transport infrastructure. Having suitable transport infrastructure, especially air transport fleet is important to increase international tourists demand.
کلیدواژه ها [English]
Tourism Demand, Economic Infrastructure, Developed Countries, Developing countries, Panel Data