بررسی تأثیر تقاضای گردشگری بر توسعه مالی با تمرکز بر اثرات تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان

2 گروه اقتصاد- دانشکده اقتصاد مدیریت و علوم اداری- دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

زمینه و هدف: درک ارتباط بین توسعه مالی و فعالیت‌های گردشگری برای جذب سرمایه‌گذاری و ارتقای رشد پایدار حائز اهمیت است. مخارج گردشگری و تعداد گردشگران بین‌المللی به‌عنوان مؤلفه‌های تقاضای گردشگری، به‌طور مستقیم یا به‌واسطه‌ی تأثیری که بر سطح توسعه مالی دارند، می‌توانند بر رشد اقتصادی اثر‌گذار باشند.
روش‌شناسی: با استفاده از رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) برای داده‌های اقتصاد ایران طی دوره زمانی ۱۳۷۴ تا ۱۳۹۷، ارتباط تقاضای گردشگری با سطح توسعه مالی، آزمون می‌شود. سپس، نحوه تأثیر توسعه مالی بر ارتباط بین تقاضای گردشگری و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، بررسی می‌شود.
یافته‌ها: نتایج بر ارتباط مثبت و معنادار بین سطح تقاضای گردشگری و توسعه مالی دلالت دارد؛ به‌ازای یک درصد رشد مخارج گردشگری، شاخص توسعه مالی، به میزان ۳۴۲۵/۰ درصد افزایش می‌‌یابد. رشد یک ‌درصدی ورود گردشگران بین‌المللی، به افزایش ۶۰۹/۰ درصدی شاخص توسعه مالی منجر می‌شود. اثر تعاملی توسعه مالی و مخارج گردشگری بر رشد تولید سرانه، ۴۰۸/۰ و به‌لحاظ آماری معنادار است. بر این‌اساس می‌توان استدلال کرد بهبود توسعه مالی به تقویت اثر مخارج گردشگری بر رشد تولید سرانه منجر می‌شود.
نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادات: نتایج سازگار با فرضیه رشد منجر به گردشگری بوده و حاکی از آن است که مقامات می‌توانند رشد اقتصادی را با تقویت بخش گردشگری و توسعه مالی، بهبود بخشند.
نوآوری و اصالت: توجه به اثر شاخص‌های تقاضای گردشگری بر سطح توسعه مالی، و نیز اثر تعاملی آنها بر رشد تولید سرانه، خلأ مطالعاتی موجود را پوشش می‌دهد و مزیت مطالعه حاضر محسوب می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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