Developing Tourism Section Strategies based on Scenario Planning Approach

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Raja HR senior expert

2 Hormozgan University

3 master

4 Master


This study investigates alternative futures of tourism industry of Hormozgan province by strategic management, future study, and scenario planning approaches. So, STEEP analysis and NVivo software were used to identify main drivers and Scenariowizard software were employed to develop scenarios. The study is of practical researches and uses combined method and it is based on future study science that implemented in explorative level. Literature review and semi-structured interviews followed for data gathering. The drivers were identified after data analyzing and narrowed down to 15 key factors by software analysis. ScenarioWizard was used to analyze cross-impact of key factors on each other. Finally, in order to strategy developing and scenario analyzing, 6 scenarios selected based on desirability out of 18 possible scenarios. The results indicate overall gradual development as the predominant future status of the province tourism industry in a time horizon of 10 years (2014-2024). The results also shows that during this period, tourism industry of Hormozgan province cannot realize perfect status in all identified derivers and the dominant stagnant status calls for revising the main strategies and planning frameworks.