Investigating income and price factors in Iran's domestic tourism demand with emphasis on fuel prices

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

tourism-management and accounting-allame tabatabaei university

10.22080/jtpd.2021.20811.3466

Abstract

By using the domestic tourism industry, governments try to create and improve domestic infrastructure, economic prosperity, create jobs and reduce poverty in different regions of the country. Due to the importance of this industry, in this study, the income and price effects of increasing fuel prices in the domestic tourism industry along with the two economic variables of real exchange rate and household income have been examined during 1387Q1-1398Q4. Given that the effect of macroeconomic variables on each other depends on economic conditions and economic conditions change over time, in modeling these dynamics have been taken into account and the model of state and space has been used. The results of estimating the study pattern show that real exchange rate, real GDP and gasoline price have a significant effect on the number of domestic overnight stays. But the effect of cash subsidies paid to households on travel demand is not significant.

Keywords


 
 
Baumeister, C., & Peersman, G. (2013). The role of time‐varying price elasticities in accounting for volatility changes in the crude oil market. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28(7), 1087-1109.
Becken, S. (2008). Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil. Tourism Management, 29, 695e705.
Becken, S. (2011). Oil, the global economy and tourism. Tourism Review, 66, 65e72.
Becken, S., & Lennox, J. (2012). Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism. Tourism Management, 33, 133e142.
Chen, C. F., & Chiou-Wei, S. Z. (2009). Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic growth: new evidence from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management, 30, 812e818.
Cortes-Jimenez, I., Pulina, M., Prunera, C., & Artis, M. (2009). Tourism and exports as a means of growth. Research Institute of Applied Economics 2009 working papers.
Croes, R., & Vanegas, M. (2008). Cointegration and causality between tourism and poverty reduction. Journal of Travel Research, 47, 94e103.
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as long-run economic growth factors: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305e316.
Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth: the case of Mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389e401.
Eugenio-Martin, J., Morales, N., & Scarpa, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries: A panel data approach. FEEM working paper no. 26.
evidence from the computable general equilibrium model. Tourism Economics, 10, 419e433.
Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., & Tadesse, B. (2011). Research note: tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries e   further empirical evidence. Tourism Economics, 17, 1365e1373.
Guizzardi, A., & Mazzocchi, M. (2009). Tourism demand for Italy and the businesscycle.Tourism Management, 30,1e11.
Gunduz, L, Hatemi-J Abdulnasser (2005). Is the Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters 12(8):499-504
Hamilton, A. (2008), ‘How to take a gas holiday’, Time, Vol 171, No 20, pp 47–48
Hamilton, J. D. (2009b). Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007e08 (pp. 215e261). Brookings papers on economic activity, Spring 2009.
Hazari, B., & Sgro, P. (1995). Tourism and growth in a dynamic model of trade. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 4, 253e256.
Husein, J., & Kara, S. M. (2020). Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA. Tourism Management, 77, 103998.
Irandoust, M. (2019). On the relation between exchange rates and tourism demand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, e00123.
Kassimati, E. (2011). Economic impact of tourism on Greece’s economy: cointegration and causality analysis. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 79, 79e85.
Kirby, J., and Campbell, C. (2008), ‘After cheap oil’, Maclean’s, Vol 121, No 22, pp 45–49
Lanza, A., & Pigliaru, F. (1999). Why are tourism countries small and fast growing? Universita’ degli Studi di Cagliari, Working paper no. 356.
Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: a closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29, 180e192.
Li, Gang, Kevin K. F. Wong, Haiyan Song, and F. Stephen Witt. 2006. Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time
Lim, C., Min, J. C. H., & McAleer, M. (2008). Modelling income effects on long and short haul international travel from Japan. Tourism Management, 29,
Lim, Christine. 1999. A Meta-Analysis Review of International Tourism Demand. Journal of Travel Research 37: 273–84.
Narayan, P. K. (2004). Economic impact of tourism on Fiji’s economy: empirical
Nicolau, J. L. (2008). Characterizing tourist sensitivity to distance. Journal of Travel Research, 47, 43e52.
Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26, 39e44. Patterson, M. G., & McDonald, G. (2004). How green and clean is New Zealand tourism? Lifecycle and future environmental impacts. Lincoln: Landcare Research.
Parrilla, J.C., Font, A.R., Nadal, J.R., 2007. Tourism and long-term growth a Spanish perspective. Ann. Tour. Res. 34 (3), 709–726.
Peersman, G., & Van Robays, I. (2011). Cross-country differences in the effects of oilshocks. Energy Economics, . http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.11.010.
Pratt, S., 2011. The global financial crisis and its impact on the hospitality industry. Int. J. Hosp. Manag. 28, 301
Proenca, S., Soukiazis, E., 2008. Tourism as an economic growth factor: a case study forsouthern European countries. Tour. Econ. 14 (4), 791.
Santos, A., & Cincera, M. (2018). Tourism demand, low cost carriers and European institutions: The case of Brussels. Journal of transport geography, 73, 163-171.
Soukiazis, E., & Proenca, S. (2008). Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels. Portuguese
Sugiyarto, G., Blake, A., Sinclair, M., 2003. Tourism and globalization: economic impactIndonesia. Ann. Tour. Res. 30 (3), 683–701
Tsui, K. W. H. (2017). Does a low-cost carrier lead the domestic tourism demand and growth of New Zealand?. Tourism Management, 60, 390-403.
United Nation World Tourism Organisation. (2006). The impact of rising oil prices on international tourism (pp. 26e36). Special report e World Tourism Organisation report, 26.
Vanegas, M., & Croes, R. (2003). Growth, development and tourism in a small economy: evidence from Aruba. International Journal of Tourism Research, 5, 315e330.
Wan-Chen Po and Bwo-Nung Huang (2008), Tourism development and economic growth–a nonlinear approach, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, vol. 387, issue 22, 5535-5542
Yeoman, I., Lennon, J., Blake, A., Galt, M., Greenwood, C., & McMathon-Beattie, U. (2007). Oil depletion: what does this mean for Scottish tourism? Tourism Management, 28, 1354e1365.
Zortuk, M. (2009). Economic impact of tourism on Turkey’s economy: evidence from cointegration tests. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 25, 231e239