Evaluating Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process in Prioritizing Rural Tourism Development Scenarios (Case Study: Mazandaran Province)

Extended Abstract
Tourism is the fastest growing industry in recent years and has attracted much attention. Since Iran is among the top ten countries in terms of natural and historical tourism potential, among the top five countries in terms of tourism diversity and the diversity of the craft between the first two countries, thus we choose to evaluate the potential of rural tourism in Iranian Northern provinces “Mazandaran”. The objective of this research is drawing a picture, and developing rural tourism and highlighting the desired fields by the help of processing scenario and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. We develop 11 scenarios that include the transformation rural houses to Eco-tourism resorts, the development of rural training camps, the creation of eco hotels, the development of temporary residences in nature, the culture-based tourism development by creating museums, the virgin rural area tourism, the development of culture-based tourism by promoting cultural festivals, the development of health tourism, the food tourism development, the tourism development considering selling souvenirs and souvenir sales development by weekly rural market. Finally, according to the results the virgin rural area tourism scenario the virgin rural area tourism is one of the best tourism scenarios. Additionally we recommend to set up a center of health tourism as center of tourism development in rural area.
 
Introduction
According to most scholars of tourism, this industry importance comes after oil, is the second largest industry and has the fastest growth rate, hence the consequences are variety of products and tourist destinations (Imeni gheshlagh & Hashemi, 2009). In the field of tourism, rural areas have become the focus of the movement of people to escape from the bustling city life and automation. Today, according to the demand and needs of the rural environment, rural tourism has been developing and been more important (Heidari sarban, 2015). On the other hand, according to Research results, Iran considered among top ten countries in terms of natural and historical tourism potential, in terms of tourism diversity among the five countries of the world and in terms of handicrafts diversity among the world's top two countries (Varesi & Souror, et. al., 2012:175). All of these are highlight the importance of planning in the field of rural tourism for all socioeconomic groups, but with the increasing changes and transformations, we can rely less on forecast-based planning procedures. Macro managers did not respond to the needs and shadow of uncertainty and the emergence of discontinue and amazing events, so that in the world of planners, predicting future changes seem so hard. The inability to accurately predict the future and also due to the increasing complexity has led researches to the new science of futurology. Researchers took advantage of the capabilities and foresight into planning and forecasting developments in the context of their activities. Over less than two decades, this approach in future studies quickly spread among many countries, also swept various fields of science. In the other words, the effective participation in the process of future developments (reduce threats and increase opportunities and choices) requires a futuristic approach that enables having an effective roles in future events (Khazaei, 2007:4).
Futurology process includes a series of attempts by searching for the sources, patterns, and agents of change or stability, to visualize the potential futures and planning for them.
Future Studies reflect the reality of the birth of "ی" from the today’s change (or stability).
Futures Studies in species issues involving "possible", "probable" and "desirable" for transformation from the present to the future. Some researchers, including Niiniluoto (2001) research about categories of the nature of futures studies as science or art and eventually referred to as Futurology located in the area of social technology (Niiniluoto, 2001).
In this study the literature on rural tourism and its status as well as the art and science of futurology will be reviewed and its process will be discussed. After this brief review, we focused on Mazandaran province as the case study. Finally, with the express on findings will attempt to answer three main questions:
ü  What are possible scenarios for the development of rural tourism in Mazandaran province?
ü  Which one of the possible scenarios of development of rural tourism in Mazandaran province is more likely?
ü  Which one of the possible scenarios of development of rural tourism in Mazandaran province is better?
 
Materials and Methods
The purpose of futurology is creating an image of the future. An image that portray future area and highlight the possible and more likely future event. Also that what the future holds for us is said to depict scenarios. In other words these are elements of our image of the future.
 In this research, the two-step process is used:
The first step (collection of possible scenarios): At this stage consultations were used to collect scenarios.  Series of face to face interviews with scholars and experts that are trying to think of the future issues and forms of probable and desirable were extracted and collected. The target population for collecting scenarios were experts in the field of rural tourism. Executive experience of at least five years of documented experience in the field of rural tourism or studding rural tourism in the area for five years, provided two conditions that include in statistical population. We used snow balling method in sampling and at the end of the sample collection process scenarios, the number of members rose to 35 people.
After reviewing of the information gathered by researchers, theoretical foundations of each of the proposed scenarios were studied. Then five of the experts in tourism industry were selected and validating the scenarios.
At the end of first step, eleven scenarios were extracted. Each of them covered the different parts of rural tourism investment opportunities. It is worth mentioning that all the possible futures of rural tourism is not limited to these eleven scenarios and an infinite number of scenarios can be added to the list eleven. So we can say that through expert opinion, the list of eleven is the most likely scenario of possible scenarios about the opportunities. The list of  eleven scenarios include the transformation rural houses to Eco-tourism resorts, the development of rural training camps, the creation of eco hotels, the development of temporary residences in nature, the culture-based tourism development by creating museums, the virgin rural area tourism, the development of culture-based tourism by promoting cultural festivals, the development of health tourism, the food tourism development, the tourism development considering selling souvenirs and souvenir sales development by weekly rural market.
The second step (extraction of desirable and probable futures): at this stage we used Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process for evaluating the desirability and possibility of scenarios.  It is is one of the ranking method was introduce by Thomas L. Saaty in the 80’s.
In this step, ten experts on rural tourism in Mazandaran province who were fully aware of the desirability and possibility of scenarios were selected. In this level, two questionnaires were presented to the experts. In one of them they evaluated the scenarios and in the other the possibility of implementing. At the end to get the result, the geometric averaging is used.
Discussion and Results
According to the results, the transformation rural houses to Eco-tourism resorts, the virgin rural area tourism and the development of health tourism were identify as the most likely scenarios. Also the development of temporary residences in nature, the culture-based tourism development by creating museums, the food tourism development and the development of rural training camps are among the scenarios with desirable and possible future.
 
Conclusions
In this study, we tried to take advantage of the scenarios (as a part of the future constituent units) to fill the gap between existing research in the field of rural tourism. On the other hand, we tried to extract and reviewed different species of rural tourism development and various aspects of the issue. We could take advantage of expert opinion (which is mentioned in the different research) to evaluate the possible ways of development.
At the end in this research we tried to develop, a view that was evaluated the possibility of scenarios to lead to desirable one. Based on the findings, this study represents a desirable and possible future of rural tourism in Mazandaran province. Since the virgin rural tourism as one of the best and the most likely scenarios (based on result) we can recommend to entrepreneurs and investment to focus on virgin village which have not yet invaded by mass tourism and non-sustainable.
Because the young and populated generation of Iran will be old in the near future, setting up a center for health tourism can be used as the core of development of rural tourism.
In the case of rural areas which do not have standards for becoming rural resorts or for any reason local people do not like to share their house with strangers, we recommend to investment on eco-resort.
 
Keywords: Futurology, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Scenarios, Rural Tourism, Eco-tourism Resorts.
 
References:

Adabi mameghani, M., Khani, F., Sajasi gheidari, H. and Farokhi, S. (2014). The effects of changes in the socio-cultural development of culture-based tourism in rural destinations Case Study: now-Dhstna sooleghan, Spatial Planning, No. 4: 55-78. (In Persian)
Imeni Gheshlagh, S., and Hashemi, S. (2009). The role of entrepreneurship in sustainable tourism development, Business and Society, No. 106: 94-105. (In Persian)
Akbarpour shirazi, M., and Hafezi, R. (2014). Agent-based architecture to extract favorable scenarios in strategic information systems based on competitive advantage, First International Conference on futurlogy, Tehran. (In Persian)
Asghar pour, M.J. (2013). Multi-Criteria Decision Making,Tehran Uni. (In Persian)
Ashtari, A., (2004), Eco-tourism and sustainability: Definitions aspects and features, Jahad, No. 252: 74-81. (In Persian)
Byrd, E., Bosley, H. and Dornberger, M. (2009). Comparision of stakeholder perception of tourisn impact in rural eastern North Carolina, Tourism Management, No. 30: 693-703.
Dwyer, L., Edwards, D., Mistilis, N., Roman, C. and Scott, N. (2009). Destination and enterprise management for a tourism future, Tourism Management, No. 30: 63-74.
Future Society: www.wfs.org
Haj karimi, A.A., (2003). Defining the optimal strategy in the automotive after-sales service market using SWOT model and develop priorities based on the AHP analytic hierarchy, Outlook Business Administration, No. 7: 175-195. (In Persian)
Halaji sani,M.K. (2014). Food the Second Best Attractions to Attract Tourists to the Country, Retrieved November 5, 2014 from: http://www.mizanonline.ir/fa/content/2872  (In Persian)
Heidari far, M.R. (2009). Land and globalization in the middle east with emphasis on tourism, Middle East Studies, No. 58: 113-140. (In Persian)
Heidari sareban, V. (2015). Tourism in promoting the social and psychological effects capabilities villagers (case study: city Meshgin), Planning and Tourism Development, No. 12: 165-183. (In Persian)
Iman, M.T. and Nowshadi, M.R. (2012). qualitative content analysis, Survey Research Journal, No. 2: 15-44. (In Persian)
Imeni Gheshlagh, S. and Hashemi, S. (2009). The role of entrepreneurship in sustainable tourism development, Business and Society, No. 106: 94-105. (In Persian)
Khazaei far, S. (2007). Future Studies, Concepts and Requirements, Discover the future. (In Persian)
Khalili, F. and Safdarian, GH. (2010). Eco hotels, The global movement towards sustainable tourism, Rahshahr, No. 117: 41-52. (In Persian)
McGehee, N. and Andereck, K. (2004). Factors predicting rural residents' support of tourism, Travel Research, 3(43): 131-140.
Niiniluoto, I. (2001). Futures studies: Science or art?, Futures, No. 33(5): 371-377.‏
Rezaie, R., Sharifi, A. and Asadpasegi, A. (2012). Analysis of the negative consequences of tourism development in rural areas of Ghazvin provice (Case study: Gazerkhan village), Village Area and Housing, No. 137: 83-96. (In Persian)
Rezvani, M.R. and Bayat, N. (2014). Analyzing the role of rural tourism in the strategic plans of development of the country, Planning and Tourism Development, No. 9: 11-30. (In Persian)
Philadelphia EcoCamp. (2014). EcoCamp, Retrieved November 1, 2014 from: http://www.phillyecocamp.org/
Richins, H. (2007). Community tourism development scenarios and their use in tourism research, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, No. 2(1): 31-42.
Shahmohammadi, M. (2010). Planning principles of sustainable development of rural tourism, Social Sciences Book, No. 14: 25-28. (In Persian)
Schwaninger, M. (1984). Forcasting leisure and tourism, Scenario projection for 2000-2010, Tourism Mangment, 5(4): 275-250.
van Doorn, J.W. (1986). Scenario writing, A method for long-term tourism forecasting, Tourism Management, No. 7: 49-33.