Developing Tourism Section Strategies based on Scenario Planning Approach

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Raja HR senior expert

2 Hormozgan University

3 master

4 Master


This study investigates alternative futures of tourism industry of Hormozgan province by strategic management, future study, and scenario planning approaches. So, STEEP analysis and NVivo software were used to identify main drivers and Scenariowizard software were employed to develop scenarios. The study is of practical researches and uses combined method and it is based on future study science that implemented in explorative level. Literature review and semi-structured interviews followed for data gathering. The drivers were identified after data analyzing and narrowed down to 15 key factors by software analysis. ScenarioWizard was used to analyze cross-impact of key factors on each other. Finally, in order to strategy developing and scenario analyzing, 6 scenarios selected based on desirability out of 18 possible scenarios. The results indicate overall gradual development as the predominant future status of the province tourism industry in a time horizon of 10 years (2014-2024). The results also shows that during this period, tourism industry of Hormozgan province cannot realize perfect status in all identified derivers and the dominant stagnant status calls for revising the main strategies and planning frameworks.


Andriotis, K. (2007). A Framework for the Tourism Planning Process. In: Raj, A. (ed.), Sustainability, Profitability and Successful Tourism, Kanishka Publishers, New Delhi.
Barber, M. (2009). Questioning scenarios. Journal of Futures Studies13(3): 139-146.
Basit, T. (2003). Manual or electronic? The role of coding in qualitative data analysis. Educational Research, 45(2): 143- 154.
Bazeley, P. (2007). Qualitative Data Analysis with NVivo. London: Sage Publications Ltd.
Bishop, P., Hines, A., and Collins, T.(2007). The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques. Foresight, 9(1): 5-25.
Chermack, T. J., Lynham, S. A., & Ruona, W. E. (2001). A review of scenario planning literature. Futures Research Quarterly17(2): 7-31.
Choy, J. L. (1991). Tourism Planning: The case for ‘market failure’. Tourism Management12(4): 313-330.
Dubois, G., Ceron, J.P., Peeters, P., & Gössling, S. (2011). The future tourism mobility of the world population: emission growth versus climate policy. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 45(10): 1031-1042.
Fontela, E., & Hingel, A. (1993). Scenarios on economic and social cohesion in Europe. Futures25(2), 139-154.
Future Foundation (2009). nVision Central Scenario UK. London: Future Foundation. URL:
Getz, D. (1989). Special events: Defining the product. Tourism Management, 10(2), 135–137.
Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technological forecasting and social change65(1): 3-22.
Goessling, S. and Scott, D. (2012). Scenario planning for sustainable tourism: an introduction. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(6): 773-778.
Grant, R. M.(2003). Strategic Planning In a Turbulent Environment: Evidence from the Oil Majors. Strategic Management Journal, 24: 491-517.
Hall, C. M. (2000). Tourism Planning: Policies, Processes and Relationships. Harlow: Pearson Education Ltd.
Hall, M. (1998). The definition and analysis of hallmark tourist events. GeoJournal, 19(3): 263–268.
Hrebiniak, L., (2006). Obstacles to Effective Strategy Implementation. Organizational Dynamics, Vol. 35: 12-31.
Malaska, P., Malmivirta, M., Meristö, T., & Hansen, S. O. (1984). Scenarios in Europe-who uses them and why?. Long Range Planning17(5): 45-49.
Martelli, A. (2001). Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution. Futures Research Quarterly17(2): 57-74.
Millet, S. M.(2003). The Future of Scenarios: Challenges and Opportunities. Strategy &Leadership. 31(2): 16-24.
Pillkahn, U. (2008). Using trends and scenarios as tools for strategy development. John Wiley & Sons.
Schoemaker, P. J. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan management review36: 25-25.
Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. Random House LLC.
Shell International(2003). Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide. London: Shell.
Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. John Wiley & Sons.
Voros, J. (2008). Integral futures: an approach to futures inquiry. Futures40(2): 190-201.
Whittington, R., and Cailluet, L.(2008). The Crafts of Strategy. In: Long Range Planning, 41: 241-247.
Wilkinson, A. (2009). Scenarios practices: in search of theory. Journal of futures studies13(3): 107-114.
Wolf, N. (2013). A Scenario Analysis of the 2030 German Spa Tourist and Tourism. Victoria University of Wellington.
Wulf, T., Meissner, P., & Stubner, S. (2010). A scenario-based approach to strategic planning–integrating planning and process perspective of strategy. Leipzig Graduate School of Management.
Yeoman, I. (2012). Tourism 2050: Scenarios for New Zealand. Wellington: Victoria University of Wellingto