اثر گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن (با استفاده از روش غیر خطی (ARDL

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 اردبیل دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی دانشکده علوم اجتماعی گروه اقتصاد عبدالرحیم هاشمی

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه تبریز

10.22080/jtpd.2023.24485.3747

چکیده

زمینه و هدف: تغییرات آب و هوای جهانی، که توسط انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای، به ویژه دی اکسید کربن تشدید شده است، تهدیدی عظیم برای زندگی انسان، محیط زیست و توسعه پایداری ایجاد می‌کند. در نتیجه، کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای و بهبود شرایط محیطی در حال حاضر یک اولویت جهانی برای ترویج رشد پایدار و جلوگیری از پیامدهای نامطلوب گرمایش جهانی و تغییرات آب و هوایی است و کشور ایران هم از این امر مستثنی نیست. بنابراین درک عوامل تعیین‌کننده و ارائه راهکار برای کاهش انتشار دی اکسید کربن مهم تلقی می‌شود. بر این اساس هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثرات رشد اقتصادی و گردشگری بر انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید‌کربن می‌باشد.
روش‌شناسی: در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصاد سنجی و مدل اتورگرسیون غیر خطی (NARDL) به ارزیابی تاثیرات گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی اکسید کربن در کشور ایران طی دوره زمانی 1399-1387 پرداخته شده است.
یافته‌ها: طبق برآوردها، افزایش یک واحدی گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی به ترتیب در کوتاه‌مدت موجب افزایش 042/0 و 449/0 واحدی انتشار دی اکسید کربن شده است و در بلندمدت موجب افزایش 177/0 و 902/0 واحدی آن شده است، در حالی که کاهش یک واحدی گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی به ترتیب در کوتاه مدت موجب کاهش 016/0 و 714/0 واحدی انتشار دی اکسید کربن شده است و در بلند‌مدت موجب کاهش 067/0 و 025/0 آن شده است. نتایج برآورد کوتاه‌مدت و بلند‌مدت با هم سازگار است با این حال، اندازه تأثیرگذاری در بلندمدت بیشتر از کوتاه‌مدت است.
نتیجه‌گیری: بر اساس یافته‌های پژوهش، اتخاذ سیاست‌هایی نظیر استفاده از سوخت‌های جایگزین پاک و فناوری‌های نوین به ویژه در خدمات حملونقل و صنایع تولیدی پیشنهاد می‌شود.
اصالت/ نوآوری:  پژوهش حاضر از جنبة متعیرهای بهکار رفته، روششناسی و دورة زمانی مورد بررسی، دارای نوآوری است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

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