بررسی عوامل اقتصادی و محیطزیستی مؤثر بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در ایران: نقش گردشگری، انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و رشد اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، گرایش توسعه و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

زمینه و هدف: این پژوهش به بررسی عوامل اقتصادی و محیط زیستی مؤثر بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در ایران با درنظرگرفتن نقش گردشگری، انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و رشد اقتصادی پرداخته است با توجه به چالش‌های فزایندۀ ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای، به‌ویژه دی‌اکسیدکربن (CO2)، هدف اصلی مطالعه، تحلیل رابطۀ بین ورود گردشگران، مصرف انرژی‌های فسیلی و تجدیدپذیر، رشد اقتصادی، توسعۀ مالی، تشکیل سرمایۀ ثابت ناخالص و جمعیت با میزان انتشار CO2 در ایران است.
روش‌شناسی: داده‌های سالانه مربوط به سال‌های 1990 تا 2023 گردآوری شده و با استفاده از آزمون‌های ریشه واحد و مدل خودرگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی (ARDL) مورد تحلیل قرار گرفته‌اند. این روش امکان بررسی تأثیرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت متغیرها را بر انتشار کربن فراهم می‌آورد.
یافته‌ها: نتایج حاکی از آن است که ورود گردشگران و مصرف انرژی‌های فسیلی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر انتشار CO2 دارند؛ درحالی‌که استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر می‌تواند به کاهش این انتشار کمک کند. این یافته‌ها بیان­گر آن است که توسعۀ گردشگری بدون توجه به نوع مصرف انرژی، می‌تواند به افزایش آلودگی محیط زیستی منجر شود.
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج تحقیق بر اهمیت توسعۀ زیرساخت‌های انرژی تجدیدپذیر در صنعت گردشگری تأکید دارد. همچنین می‌تواند به سیاست‌گذاران در طراحی راهبردهای مؤثر برای کاهش انتشار کربن و ترویج توسعۀ پایدار کمک کند.
نوآوری و اصالت: نوآوری اصلی پژوهش، استفاده از مدل ARDL برای تحلیل روابط دینامیک میان متغیرها و بررسی هم‌زمان تأثیرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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