آینده‌نگاری مقاصد گردشگری ورزشی بر اساس رهیافت سناریو (مطالعه موردی: استان اصفهان)

نوع مقاله : علمی-پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود دانشکده تربیت بدنی و‌علوم ورزشی

2 گروه تربیت بدنی. دانشکده تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی. دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود. شاهرود. ایران

3 گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

10.22080/jtpd.2023.23905.3718

چکیده

زمینه و هدف: توجه به آینده، یکی از مهم‌ترین مؤلفه‌های پایداری مقاصد گردشگری ورزشی است؛  اما این موضوع تاکنون به‌خوبی در مطالعات موجود واکاوی نشده است. لذا هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل آینده مقاصد گردشگری ورزشی بر اساس شناسایی عوامل و پیشران‌های منتهی به سناریوهای محتمل و ممکن تا افق زمانی 1410 می‌باشد که از طریق یک مطالعه موردی در استان اصفهان انجام‌شده است.
روش­ شناسی: روش تحقیق این مطالعه، از نظر هدف، از نوع کاربردی، ازنظر مسیر انجام، از نوع پیمایشی است. داده‌های پژوهش با استفاده از سه روش مصاحبه، مرور ادبیات نظری و پرسشنامه‌های وزن‌دهی شده گردآوری شد. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل 14 نفر از متخصصین حوزه گردشگری ورزشی بودند که به روش هدفمند انتخاب شدند. تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از روش‌های تحلیل ساختاری در نرم‌افزار میک مک و روش تحلیل سناریو انجام گردید.
یافته­ ها: یافته‌ها نشان داد سیستم گردشگری ورزشی استان اصفهان یک سیستم ناپایدار می‌باشد که در آینده به تغییرات آنی متغیرهای دارای عدم قطعیت بالا وابسته خواهد شد. بر اساس شناسایی چهار عدم قطعیت بحرانی و پنج عامل از پیش معیّن، درمجموع 16 سناریو ایجاد شد که شامل دو سناریوی غیرمحتمل، پنج سناریوی ناسازگار، سه سناریو با احتمال وقوع ضعیف، چهار سناریوی با احتمال وقوع متوسط و دو سناریو با احتمال وقوع قوی است.
نتیجه­ گیری و پیشنهادات: نتیجه نهایی این بود که فقدان سیاست‌گذاری واحد و منسجم باقابلیت به‌روزرسانی مداوم و پویا در سطح ملی، منجر به آسیب‌پذیر شدن مقاصد گردشگری ورزشی استان اصفهان شده است. لذا مهم‌ترین راهبردها و اقدامات برنامه‌ریزی آینده، بایستی حول محور سیاست‌گذاری در سطح استانی متمرکز شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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